High Vulnerability Behind Kinshasa’s Deadly Floods Following Heavy Rainfall

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Since April 4, heavy rainfall has been impacting the Democratic Republic of the Congo, triggering widespread flooding, casualties, and extensive damage.

At least 33 people died in the capital, Kinshasa, after the Ndjili River overflowed. The floods have destroyed roads and homes, caused power outages, and severely disrupted the water supply. According to media reports, nearly half of Kinshasa—26 districts—have been severely affected, with floodwaters submerging key infrastructure, including the main road to the airport. The hardest-hit areas are the poorer outskirts of the city (BBC, 2024). In at least 16 communes, access to drinking water has been cut off due to submerged water facilities (NPR, 2025). 

Kinshasa’s Deadly Floods Following Heavy Rainfall

The downpours from the 4th of April and over the subsequent days followed unusually heavy rains at the end of March, leading to high rivers even before the rainfall that led to the reported flooding.  

Researchers from the DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the 7-day rainfall that ultimately led to the flooding in Kinshasa.

The analysis focuses on the river basin where the Ndjili and Congo rivers meet, which includes cities beyond Kinshasa. Although heavy rain affected much of the region, the impacts concentrated in Kinshasa, the capital of the DRC. Therefore, the vulnerability and exposure assessment centers on Kinshasa.

Main findings

• Kinshasa is prone to frequent and deadly flooding during the rainy season (October to May). The city sits beside the Congo River, with several rivers, including the Ndjili, flowing directly through it. With close to 18 million residents, Kinshasa is one of the most populated cities in the world. Around 70% of the urban population lives in dense informal housing, much of it in areas prone to floods and landslides. In 2022, more than 100 people died following a similarly heavy downpour. 
• From a hazard point of view, the event as observed in 2025 is not rare. Similar periods of heavy rainfall are expected about every two years in today’s climate. This climate has warmed by 1.3°C due to fossil fuel burning.
• TTo assess whether heavy rainfall events were more or less frequent in the past, we examined three gridded data products and two weather stations in Kinshasa. The three gridded datasets show very different trends. One suggests climate change made the event much more likely, while two show no change. The station data, available only until 2023, does not include the event. However, it shows different events and trends during the overlapping years compared to all three gridded products.
• Climate models also show very varying trends, including a strong increase, no trends and a decreasing trend in heavy precipitation over the region since the pre industrial climate. However, this is no indication that there is no trend, as the discrepancies are very high. 
• We conclude that we cannot provide a clear attribution statement. Climate change could play a significant role. Because of this, planners must include it in adaptation and resilience strategies.
• The scarcity and inaccessibility of meteorological data limit our analysis. Additionally, climate models perform inadequately. Because of this, we cannot confidently evaluate the role of climate change in the rainfall that caused the flooding. Our previous study on a 2023 flood in Eastern DRC was similarly inconclusive for the same reasons, highlighting an ongoing need to invest in weather monitoring stations and climate science to understand changing weather extremes in Central Africa. 
• The IPCC projects an increase in heavy rainfall across Central Africa, particularly over short timescales of five days or less. Several data sources—including two weather stations—and about half of the climate models analyzed indicate a notable rise in heavy rainfall for both Kinshasa and the broader study region. Therefore, a future increase in heavy rainfall due to climate change is a strong possibility.

Deadly Floods Following Heavy Rainfall

• Since gaining independence in 1960, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has faced decades of political instability and conflict. Despite being one of the most mineral-rich countries in the world—with over half of the global cobalt supply, a key element in batteries and the global transition to renewable energy—the DRC remains the fourth poorest country globally.
• Prolonged conflict, particularly in the eastern regions (see WWA’s other study in the DRC), continues to severely impact the country. In recent months, violence has intensified, resulting in thousands of deaths and displacing nearly seven million people. These ongoing crises in the east could have far-reaching ripple effects, such as increasing migration flows into cities. 
• Floods in Kinshasa happen frequently and often cause high death tolls. These events highlight the urgent need to build resilience to heavy rainfall. The urgency grows with the city’s rapid population increase. Kinshasa’s population is expected to nearly double to 40 million within the next 20 years.
• Flood risk is amplified by rapid population growth and limited infrastructure. There is also high reliance on informal systems. This is especially true in areas where critical services—like drainage, healthcare, and electricity—are inconsistent or hard to access. Drainage often gets blocked by waste pollution. Limited waste management services and poor sewage maintenance worsen flooding risks.
• Progress is underway—for example, drafting a new law on the DRC’s town planning and construction code aims to reduce flood exposure. However, more comprehensive efforts must follow to lessen the impact of frequent devastating floods. Adaptation finance will be critical to support flood adaptation as Kinshasa and nearby cities continue to grow.